RIMPAC 2028 Rudely Interrupted

UNITED STATES INDO-PACIFIC COMMAND
JOINT INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY (JINTSUM)

Classification: SECRET // REL TO RIMPAC PARTICIPANTS
DTG: 100100Z JUN 2028
Area of Operations: Central Pacific – Hawaiian Operating Areas
Subject: PLA Navy Surface Action Group Approaching RIMPAC Forces Following Taiwan Contingency

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Following the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) invasion of Taiwan on 19 June 2028 and subsequent hostilities between Chinese and allied forces throughout the Western Pacific, multiple Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) task groups have successfully broken through the First and Second Island Chains.

Current intelligence indicates a reinforced PLAN Surface Action Group (SAG) is proceeding eastward toward Hawaiian waters at high speed. The force is assessed to be conducting either:

A demonstration of force intended to disrupt RIMPAC operations.
A long-range anti-surface strike mission against coalition naval forces.
A precursor operation intended to establish conditions for follow-on attacks against military infrastructure in Hawai’i.

RIMPAC participants currently operating south and west of Oahu are advised to prepare for possible hostile action within the next 12–24 hours.

2. SITUATION
Strategic Context

The PLA initiated large-scale military operations against Taiwan on 19 June 2028. Hostilities rapidly expanded throughout the Indo-Pacific theater.

U.S. Seventh Fleet units engaged PLAN formations east of Taiwan and within the Philippine Sea. While substantial losses were inflicted on Chinese naval forces, intelligence confirms several PLAN elements escaped encirclement and proceeded into the Central Pacific.

Long-range reconnaissance assets have tracked one major formation for approximately 72 hours.

3. ENEMY FORCES
PLAN Surface Action Group "DRAGON SPEAR"

Estimated Composition

Primary Combatants

1 x Type 003 Aircraft Carrier
1 × Type 055 Renhai-class Cruiser
2 × Type 052D Luyang III-class Destroyers
2 × Type 054A Jiangkai II-class Frigates

Subsurface Threat

Possible escort by 1–2 nuclear-powered attack submarines
located ~20-50NM west of RIMPAC Forces
Contact quality: Medium confidence

Aviation Assets

Shipborne Z-20 and Z-9 helicopters
Possible long-range targeting support from PLA Air Force and Strategic Support Force satellites
4. ENEMY CAPABILITIES
Anti-Ship Strike

The task group is assessed capable of coordinated saturation attacks using:

YJ-18 anti-ship cruise missiles
YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship missiles (Type 055 only)
Land-based bomber cueing from mainland China via satellite relay

Estimated maximum engagement range exceeds 500 nautical miles.

Air Defense

Layered air defense network includes:

HHQ-9B long-range SAMs
HHQ-16 medium-range SAMs
Advanced phased-array radar systems

Assessment: Highly capable against conventional air attack.

5. FRIENDLY FORCES
RIMPAC Task Force

Current participating forces include:

1 × U.S. Navy Nimitz Carrier
2 × U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke Destroyers
English, Spanish, Japanese, German, and Italian surface combatants
USAF fighter detachments on alert

Task Force currently engaged in multinational exercises approximately 670 NM west of Oahu.

6. MOST LIKELY ENEMY COURSE OF ACTION (MLCOA)

The PLAN formation will continue its eastward approach while maintaining undisciplined emissions control.

At approximately 70-80 NM from coalition forces, the SAG is expected to launch a coordinated missile strike designed to:

Disrupt coalition command and control.
Inflict losses on high-value naval units.
Demonstrate PLAN ability to threaten Hawaii despite ongoing combat near Taiwan.

Probability: 60%

7. MOST DANGEROUS ENEMY COURSE OF ACTION (MDCOA)

PLAN forces may coordinate with:

Forward-positioned submarines.
Long-range bombers operating from mainland China.
Space-based targeting assets.

Under this scenario, coalition forces could face a multi-axis attack involving:

Cruise missiles
Hypersonic missiles
Torpedo attacks
Electronic warfare operations

Probability: 25%

Potential consequences include significant losses to coalition naval forces and degradation of RIMPAC command structure.

8. COMMANDER’S INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT

The approach of PLAN combatants toward Hawaiian operating areas represents the furthest eastward deployment of Chinese naval power during the current conflict.

While enemy forces remain outnumbered by coalition assets in the Central Pacific, the PLAN task group’s missile inventory poses a credible threat to all surface units participating in RIMPAC operations.

Commanders should assume hostile intent and prepare for immediate transition from exercise conditions to combat operations.

9. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
Increase airborne ISR coverage west of the task force.
Deploy ASW screening assets beyond current exercise boundaries.
Transition participating forces to wartime EMCON posture.
Establish layered air and missile defense stations.
Prepare strike packages for immediate execution upon confirmation of hostile action.
Maintain continuous tracking of PLAN support vessels to identify logistics vulnerabilities.

Assessment Confidence: MODERATE-HIGH

Prepared By: Joint Intelligence Center Pacific (JICPAC)
Approved By: Commander, Task Force Intelligence